On the heels of last week’s National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, hurricane forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach released their revised extended-range forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

The Colorado State researchers’ initial Atlantic basin forecast released in December indicated above-normal tropical activity would be seen in 2010. The revised forecast bolsters their earlier prediction, and adds onto it.

An excerpt from the latest report reads: “We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

Here’s how Gray and Klotzbach’s updated 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast shakes out compared to the initial outlook:

2010 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast                            Initial Forecast         Revised Forecast
                                                                                                             Issue Date                 Issue Date
                                                                                                           Dec. 9, 2009               April 7, 2010
Named Storms                                                                                       11-16                              15
Hurricanes                                                                                                6-8                                 8
Intense Hurricanes                                                                                   3-5                                 4

According to the report, probabilities for at least one major (category 3-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas include:
• Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
• U.S. East Coast, including Florida peninsula - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

Gray and Klotzbach are scheduled to issue seasonal updates of the 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast on Wednesday, June 2 and Wednesday, Aug. 4.